An interesting theory has surfaced among modern day psychologists related to a person's blinking habits. In numerous medical journals, it is stated that when a person experiences stress, or is involved in a stress-inducing activity such as lying, the eyes become dilated and the rate of blinking increases. In layman's terms, the more one blinks, the greater the probability that he/she is lying.Fade To Black has attempted to put this theory into practice applying it to the final Presidential debates held at the University of San Diego on October 16th in order to calculate which one of the Presidential Candidates was most likely lying to the publ ic.
First, the normal blinking pattern of each of the candidates had to be determined. Once this was recorded, we were then able to monitor each candidate's blinking pattern as he answered each question posed to him, thus comparing that to each one's average.
Bill Clinton's eyes were clearly visible on screen for 1,441 seconds, or approximately 24 minutes. Bob Dole’s eyes were visible for 1,296 seconds or approximately 22 minutes. The total number of times Bill Clinton blinked was 1057, and the total for Bob D ole was 1296. Thus, the average blinks per minute for Bill Clinton was 44, and for Bob Dole it was 71. With these numbers in place, we were then able to evaluate how each person reacted to a particular question based on either an increase or decrease in t heir normal blinking patterns.
The format of the debate was as following: each candidate was allowed 90 seconds to answer a question posed to him form the audience. After his reply, the other candidate was allowed 60 seconds to offer a response, followed by a 30 second retort by the fi rst candidate.
To illustrate how the chart below works, lets look at the question about nicotine addiction. Out of the two minutes Bob Dole had to address this question, he was visible on camera for 73 seconds blinking 114 times, making his average 94 blinks per minute -- a 32% increase over his average of 71 blinks per minute. In comparison, out of his total response time of 60 seconds, Bill Clinton was on camera for 37 seconds, blinked 41 times accumulating an average of 54 blinks per minute -- 23% increase over his a verage of 44. So, it appears that Bob Dole may have been deceiving the public the most on that particular answer.
Below are the final results. The data is broken down by each question asked, how many seconds the candidate was on the screen, how many times he blinked, and the number of percentage points over or under his average each candidate was.
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| Topic of Discussion | Canidate | Screen Time |
Total Blinks |
Blinks per Minute |
Overall Average |
Overall Score | |
| Opening Statements Least trustworthy: Clinton |
Dole | 91 sec | 94 | 62 | 71 per/min | -13 |  |
| Clinton | 89 sec | 81 | 55 | 44 per/min | +25 | ||
| Preaching Unity (to our children) Least trustworthy: Clinton |
Dole | 82 sec | 114 | 83 | 71 per/min | +21 | |
| Clinton | 50 sec | 49 | 59 | 44 per/min | +34 | ||
| Dole | 37 sec | 55 | 89 | ||||
| Health Care Least trustworthy: Clinton |
Clinton | 74 sec | 57 | 46 | 44 per/min | +26 | |
| Dole | 34 sec | 44 | 78 | 71 per/min | +10 | ||
| Clinton | 11 sec | 12 | 65 | ||||
| Increasing Military Payscale Least trustworthy: Dole |
Dole | 54 sec | 56 | 62 | 71 per/min | +28 | |
| Clinton | 38 sec | 31 | 49 | 44 per/min | +11 | ||
| Dole | 22 sec | 44 | 120 | ||||
| Middle East Least trustworthy: Dole |
Clinton | 87 sec | 77 | 53 | 44 per/min | +16 | |
| Dole | 40 sec | 62 | 93 | 71 per/min | +31 | ||
| Clinton | 37 sec | 30 | 49 | ||||
| Niccotine (Addictive?) Least trustworthy: Dole |
Dole | 53 sec | 83 | 94 | 71 per/min | +32 | |
| Clinton | 41 sec | 37 | 54 | 44 per/min | +23 | ||
| Dole | 20 sec | 31 | 93 | ||||
| Social Security Reform Least trustworthy: Dole |
Clinton | 78 sec | 43 | 33 | 44 per/min | -13 | |
| Dole | 45 sec | 70 | 93 | 71 per/min | +16 | ||
| Clinton | 22 sec | 16 | 44 | ||||
| Health Care Reform Least trustworthy:Clinton |
Dole | 58 sec | 66 | 68 | 71 per/min | +1 | |
| Clinton | 55 sec | 48 | 52 | 44 per/min | +18 | ||
| Dole | 27 sec | 34 | 76 | ||||
| Capital Gains Tax Reduction Least trustworthy: Clinton |
Clinton | 62 sec | 54 | 52 | 44 per/min | +22 | |
| Dole | 26 sec | 34 | 78 | 71 per/min | +10 | ||
| Clinton | 12 sec | 11 | 55 | ||||
| Appeal to Young Voters Least trustworthy:Clinton |
Dole | 67 sec | 88 | 79 | 71 per/min | +7 | |
| Clinton | 45 sec | 39 | 52 | 44 per/min | +18 | ||
| Dole | 9 sec | 11 | 73 | ||||
| Affirmative Action Least trustworthy: Dole |
Clinton | 65 sec | 51 | 47 | 44 per/min | +1 | |
| Dole | 20 sec | 28 | 84 | 71 per/min | +18 | ||
| Clinton | 26 sec | 18 | 42 | ||||
| Tax Reduction and Balancing the Budget Least trustworthy:Clinton |
Dole | 37 sec | 42 | 68 | 71 per/min | -6 | |
| Clinton | 42 sec | 40 | 57 | 44 per/min | +30 | ||
| Dole | 10 sec | 11 | 66 | ||||
| Family Leave Act Least trustworthy: Dole |
Clinton | 80 sec | 54 | 40 | 44 per/min | +14 | |
| Dole | 19 sec | 31 | 96 | 71 per/min | +38 | ||
| Clinton | 8 sec | 8 | 60 | ||||
| Keeping Manufacturing in the United States Least trustworthy:Dole |
Dole | 70 sec | 92 | 79 | 71 per/min | -2 | |
| Clinton | 45 sec | 25 | 33 | 44 per/min | -25 | ||
| Dole | 6 sec | 6 | 60 | ||||
| Gay Discrimination Laws Least trustworthy: Dole |
Clinton | 36 sec | 16 | 27 | 44 per/min | -32 | |
| Dole | 32 sec | 27 | 50 | 71 per/min | -30 | ||
| Clinton | 13 sec | 7 | 32 | ||||
| Health Care Least trustworthy:Dole |
Dole | 59 sec | 77 | 78 | 71 per/min | +33 | |
| Clinton | 19 sec | 6 | 19 | 44 per/min | -57 | ||
| Dole | 19 sec | 35 | 111 | ||||
| Appealing to Voters from other parties (Bringing Unity) Least trustworthy: Dole |
Clinton | 47 sec | 16 | 20 | 44 per/min | -43 | |
| Dole | 33 sec | 52 | 95 | 71 per/min | +34 | ||
| Clinton | 10 sec | 5 | 30 | ||||
| Social Security Least trustworthy:Dole |
Dole | 55 sec | 77 | 84 | 71 per/min | +20 | |
| Clinton | 40 sec | 26 | 39 | 44 per/min | -11 | ||
| Dole | 22 sec | 32 | 87 | ||||
| Trade Deficit with Japan Least trustworthy: Dole |
Clinton | 53 sec | 39 | 44 | 44 per/min | -2 | |
| Dole | 35 sec | 52 | 89 | 71 per/min | +25 | ||
| Clinton | 36 sec | 25 | 42 | ||||
| Returning to Christian Beliefs Least trustworthy:Dole |
Dole | 51 sec | 77 | 91 | 71 per/min | +19 | |
| Clinton | 46 sec | 34 | 44 | 44 per/min | 0 | ||
| Dole | 20 sec | 26 | 78 | ||||
| Special Rights and Equal Rights Least trustworthy:Clinton |
Clinton | 51 sec | 37 | 44 | 44 per/min | -5 | |
| Dole | 30 sec | 28 | 56 | 71 per/min | -21 | ||
| Clinton | 15 sec | 10 | 40 | ||||
| Closing Statements Least trustworthy:Dole |
Dole | 113 sec | 158 | 84 | 71 per/min | +18 | |
| Clinton | 108 sec | 65 | 36 | 44 per/min | -18 | ||
Here is the simple break down of our findings:
During the Debate, Bob Dole was most likely lying on the issues of Social Security and Foreign Issues. On the issues of Economics and Health Care Reform, the person less likely to be trusted is Bill Clinton.We hope the information contained on this page mades the decision and easier one for you.
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